I think this is a great collation of sources and nice analysis. I like the point about the lightning affecting Palpatine's face instead of it being his true form.
But honestly, all sources aside, just watching the movie on its own just gives me a pretty clear sense that Palpatine is throwing it on purpose. The body language and so on, but more than that, it's obviously Palpatine's plan to have Mace survive long enough so Anakin can see him, and then feel guilty when Mace is killed, because he has no way of going back to the Jedi after being culpable in Mace's murder. It's the whole point of the plot. Palpatine knew this was going to happen, he told Anakin he was a Sith so Anakin would tell the Jedi. What are your thoughts on that part--that regardless of what exists outside of the movie, that the point of this scene was the culmination of Palpatine's plan to turn Anakin, and Palpatine wouldn't plan it this way unless he was sure he could win?
Also, following up on the lightning scarring...Sidious knows that pain leads to power, this could well be his intentional way of leveling himself up, of growth in anger and hatred through physical trauma--not that different from what he's been putting Vader through in the comics, but doing it to himself. So I don't think the fact that the lightning really hurt him is conclusive either way. He's certainly very capable of doing whatever it takes to get what he wants, including sacrifice of his face. But it's an interesting thing to think about either way.
But also, taking other media back into consideration, what about the novelization, which I don't think you included here? Now I know you're qualifying this as a Canon argument, but regardless of when it was published I have a hard time seeing the novels of the book as outside Canon. Wookieepedia does still describe the movie novelizations as Canon regardless of their publication date ("Since then, the only previously published material still considered canon are the six original trilogy/prequel trilogy films, novels (where they align with what is seen on screen)..."). But if you don't (perhaps under the "when they align with what is seen on screen" exception), that's fine and ignore the rest of what I have here. I don't care too much about arguing about what's canon or not. Anyway here are a number of quotes from the novel:
Anakin comes in and sees Windu as he "battled alone, blade to blade, against a living shadow." Soon after, Windu was "half swallowed by a thickening black haze in which danced a meter-long bar of sunfire." This characterization of Sidious as a Sith shadow continues through the fight. This seems to imply that Sidious is already fully embracing his Sith identity and not just at the end with the eyes.
The narrative has Mace think, "In the Force, the shadow had become a pulsar of fear." This sounds like Windu was in fact winning. And there's a couple more lines about the shadow's fear, backing that up.
Now Palpatine turns back to his more human presentation: "Now the shadow was only Palpatine, old and shunken, thinning hair bleached white by time and care, face lined with exhaustion." Clearly he's putting this on as an act. He switched modes on purpose to gain Anakin's pity. He uses "the broken cadence of a frightened old man."
Mace tries to stick the fear he felt in Palpatine's face: "you lost for the same reason the Sith always lose: defeated by your own fear."
"Fool," Palpatine replies twice, the second time in italics. This is not a random word choice. He clearly sees Mace as a fool, and having beenfooled. Then: "Did you think the fear you feel is mine?" [emphasis in original] Obviously, the point is that it was not. Palpatine had no fear the whole fight, he was tricking Windu.
He shoots the lightning, and was perhaps surprised that Windu managed to reflect it, since "Palpatine staggered, snarling" when hit, but also to my point above, "he fed the power with his pain" when he blasts again. [Following up on the fact that he doesn't care about his face--later he looks at himself in a mirror, shrugs, and just says I shall miss the face of Palpatine, I think."]
Mace calls for Anakin to help him, clearly indicating he needs it. Then he feels again: "Palpatine was not afraid....he wasn't worried at all." Now you could argue that maybe in this case Palpatine wasn't afraid because he knows Anakin is going to help him, not Windu. But that doesn't affect Palpatine's lack of fear earlier, which is what he thought Windu was a fool about. I mean arguably, maybe Sidious felt no fear the whole time because he had forseen all of this with the Force and knew what was going to happen, and so in that approach, maybe Mace beat him fair and square and Sidious was fine with that because he knew Anakin would come in and save him. But that still doesn't really explain the part where Mace is a fool. That only comes with the whole thing being an act.
Now "Palpatine...ramped up the lightning bursting from his hands, bending the fountain of Mace's blade" back towards his face. So Palpatine wasn't going all out in his initial lightning.
Mace's voice is described as "going thin with strain" and "he had no strength left to fight against his own blade." He says "Anakin, he's too strong for me." [emphasis in original]
But literally immediately after Mace says Palpatine is too strong, Palpatine fakes it more, stopping his lightning out of nowhere and acting like an "old man crumpled to his knees." He makes some obviously fake whimpers about "I am too old, too weak. Don't kill me, Master Jedi. Please. I surrender."
Then they talk some more, Anakin cuts off his hand and Palpatine zaps him out the window.
So to summarize, Mace was tricked into thinking Palpatine was afraid, but he wasn't. Palpatine clearly indicates that he was fooling Windu. Sidious also shifted back and forth between a more shadowy, Sith form (at least as seen through the Force) and his pathetic frail human form as needed to put on his show for Anakin, showing again that he was doing it to con Anakin, and that he was in full embrace of his Sith nature throughout. He may have been surprised that Mace reflected back the lightning, but he wasn't doing it full force at the start, and after, he was winning the lightning/saber battle, bending the blade back toward Windu with Mace saying Palpatine was too strong for him. Then Palpatine only stopped in order to get Anakin to join in.
So from my perspective, it seems pretty clear Windu was never really in control.
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