The Killing Joke origin makes most sense to me, even if I don't follow it down to a letter. I think he used to be an average, law-abiding citizen. Had he been a cold-blooded killer criminal, he would not have become the "ideologically" chaotic threat he is. Someone who had adapted to a life of a career criminal wouldn't go insane like that. I think of it this way; you can't fall down without dropping from somewhere high. Mobsters and such are low to begin with. That is why they don't get warped easily. Joker has had genuine moments of clarity and moments of remorse (when briefly sane), which would be pretty much impossible if there had never been a decent human being to begin with.
I think he was a fragile, normal guy who might have had some minor mental issues (depression etc.) before his "really bad day". The financial problems, his low self-esteem, failure as a comedian, death of his family and finally getting disfigured were the killing blows. There is a seed of truth to Moore's own criticism of a man going insane in a single day, but I don't think it went like that. We can only guess how bad he had it before the day he fell into that vat.
Besides, I think him being "normal" before being Joker makes him creepier than him being a thug. It's a lot scarier to think that someone like you and me could become a monster like that.
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