I hate this thread's existence so much right now. Ever since I read that theory and started to look more into it, I can't get it out of my head. For the last 4 hours all I've done is browse through the internet finding only more support for this theory.
Even comments on the threads provide more support...
I like this theory. It always fits with a part of TPM that always felt odd to me. When Jar Jar arrives in the underwater kingdom thing, they take him seriously. They point spears at him, and don't act like he's just a bumbling idiot. They seem more worried about him than the two Jedi he's with. Contrast this with the absolute conviction of the federation dudes that the Jedi are a huge potential threat. It is clear soon after that they recognise them as Jedi, so they're not acting from ignorance.
Not long after, when they're on the way to the planet's core, Qui-gon asks Jar Jar why he was banished, and Jar Jar acts very shiftily, saying it was because he was "clumsy" and yes, "you could say that". He does, though, acknowledge this was "a small part of it", while being extremely evasive. The Jedi seem skeptical, but presumably don't think too much more about it. Jar Jar then describes causing great damage.
They are then attacked by a big fish, who is then eaten by another, bigger fish. Qui-gon comments that "There's always a bigger fish."
This "introduction to Jar Jar" struck me as very strange. It never occurred to me that he might be the big villain of your theory, but damn, it really fits. We're introduced to Jar Jar as feared, dishonest, and with reference to a "bigger fish".
Just to add a bit to the theory: Lucas almost always draws on other sources (like any good storyteller) to form his world. So can we find inspiration for the character of Jar Jar Binks in the way that you describe? Absolutely.
1) This has already been mentioned by several others, but if Jar Jar is simply playing the fool as a means to the insidious ends of bringing about the fall of the Republic, destroying the Order of the Jedi, and establishing a galactic empire, then his character would almost mirror that of The Mule from Isaac Asimov's foundation. Powerful telepathic mutant who played the fool but mind controlled and manipulated others to get his way, worked mostly in the background and through politics, and managed to bring about the destruction of the complacent First Foundation on Terminus and establish an empire spanning a third of the galaxy. The correlations are painfully obvious if Jar Jar is, in fact, maliciously manipulative.
2) The name could perhaps provide some clue. Lucas is often not particularly subtle with his naming choices while still not making them seem unnatural. Skywalker, Solo, Darth Vader, etc. So can the very name Jar Jar Binks help solidify this theory?
Let's take them in order. Jar can mean a number of things. From Merriam-Webster.com, "to have a harsh or unpleasant effect on someone or something", "to hit or shake something forcefully", "to make someone feel uneasy". A couple of secondary meanings given are "an unsettling shock", "an unpleasant break or conflict in rhythm, flow, or transition".
Now for Binks. My best guess is that Lucas was drawing on another already existing source as his inspiration for Binks. The popular fantasy world of Xanth, created by Piers Anthony and with its first book published in 1977. The main character of the first two books and a recurring character through other books in the series is...Bink. Copy/Pasted from Wikipedia, here is Bink's description.
Bink is the Magician of Magical Invulnerability and the main character in the first two novels of the Xanth series, A Spell for Chameleon and The Source of Magic. He is the son of Roland of the High Council and Bianca. He serves as king pro-tem during Trent's reign.
Bink is banished for not possessing a magic talent when, in fact, he does possess magical ability. Bink's magic does not want to be known because, if it were, those of non-magical means would injure Bink and his family, with the magic being indirectly responsible. Hence, in order to keep itself hidden, Bink's magic works in quiet ways, by seeming coincidence, and very few people know of it. For example, it causes an invisible giant to walk by just as Bink was to reveal his magic whilst under a truth spell. Furthermore, Bink's magic protects him, making him seem an unusually lucky man.
So, Jar Jar Binks. With the above information, his name seems like it could actually help inform what George wanted from the character. And based on this information, if Bink is in fact the source for Jar Jar Binks' last name, then it implies a hidden magic user who appears to be just ridiculously lucky but is in fact just keeping his true nature on the down low. And the two Jars are perhaps to tell us that he will cause a dual jarring: one in the Star Wars universe when he destroys the Jedi Order and dismantles the Republic, the other in the movie audience when his true nature is finally revealed.
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