As much as I love Tonraq's style, I'm not sure if he's on the same level as the others here. He's got a very direct, physical style that more augments his natural abilities as a warrior with his bending rather than actually using his bending to win. Main point being when he was fighting Unalaq he spent the entire fight trying to get close to his brother because he couldn't win with pure bending.
On the other hand Unalaq is a few steps above either Katara or Ming. His power is about even with katara's but he has much better mobility, both on foot and with his waterspout technique. Meanwhile he has a clear power edge over Ming and his waterspout makes him very difficult to gain an edge over him with mobility alone. I doubt he could beat both together, but he'd be a serious threat to them even in a 1v2 scenario.
In the end I can see team 1 taking it IF Tonraq is able to close the distance on Katara, which I believe he can achieve with support from Unalaq. Katara could likely take Tonraq in a straight fight, but in hand to hand Tonraq would quite easily overpower the young girl who has some really, really bad close combat showings. With Katara out Ming would get overwhelmed pretty quickly.
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