It can go either way honestly. But one thing is undisputed, whichever cat walks away could be killed by even a fly perching on its nose. (It's gonna be a brutal fight for both and none will walk away without serious injuries)
Shere Khan slightly outweighs Mufasa but Mufasa is larger than the average lion so the gap between himself and the tiger would be subliminal and and almost irrelevant. Point goes to Khan in size but not much of an advantage.
By all accounts Shere Khan is handicapped most version was limp but this one was blind in one eye, Mufasa had no physical handicap may his handicap was his moral standards and benevolent character an emotional or mental handicap? However it's proven without a doubt Mufasa can be just as feral and savage given the proper motivation. Point goes to Mufasa for being without a handicap which should help in a fight even if it's just a little but honestly just as irrelevant as the size difference between himself and Khan.
Battle feat, most version of Khan couldn't challenge the wolf pack head on in full scale but this one could take on a pack even though it was no longer the full pack like during Akeela's reign. He also beat a jolly bear Baloo and a panther in this case it was a black leopard and not a black jaguar so that counts for something. Hyenas are just as heavy as leopards if not slightly heavier, single Hyenas scare single leopards, they have a stronger bite force, would demolish a wolf any time anyday and outclass them in all categories including having a bigger clan than a wolf pack. So Mufasa charging into a clan of Hyenas totally unscathed is not really lost on khan's battle with the wolf pack, leopard and bear. Point goes to both. Both also get points for durability, Khan for the last fight and Mufasa for being able to come out of being trampled and nearly gored by a wildebeest stampede, he could still jump high and pull his already massive weight up at an inclined angle against gravity and if Scar wasn't there he could have claimed out just fine.
When all is said and done the best scenario to bring out the most in them is for Khan to go after cub Simba and hate him as much as a man cub and for Mufasa to hear of it and step in to save Simba. To this end both cats will die from sustained injuries. But I'm rolling with Mufasa, his thick main should give him even more protection than Baloo's fur did when Shere Khan bit his neck. We see Khan has a habit of going for the throat he did it to Akeela and attempted it with Bahgera in the last fight.
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