Bloodlusted Vader could probably win through sheer power, and considering that he trained Lumiya, he wouldn't be unfamiliar with her weapon. However, her combative abilities might approach or even exceed his depending on how you view her rather inconsistent showings.
Which version of Lumiya? I instantly thought of her as she was when she faced Luke the first time, but if this is LotF Lumiya, I might give it to her. Otherwise, Vader.
@jedixman: This is morals off, too, so the dark side nexus in round 1 would allow her to utilize her Illusions, which have fooled a range of opponents including Luke himself.
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