Lobo, most likely. Eventually, he'd figure out that Smiley is the key to Evil Ernie's powers and capitalize on that. Then again, we weren't given much detail with this scenario. If the fight takes place at, say, the site of a mass grave in Rwanda, then I might give the edge to the Evil One because all he would need to do is get more zombies to dog-pile Lobo than he can lift off of himself. But, yeah, Lobo would most likely win because his healing factor and immortality are unconditional.
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