Vulture has the intelligence, strength and endurance advantage, as well as a decidedly ruthless nature and more years of experience in flight. That said, I believe that Falcon's top flight speed is greater and his aerial agility is slightly superior as well. Additionally, Falcon's wakandan designed flight suit has a better variety of features than Toomes' suit. The main advantages held by Falcon that turn the tide IMO, are his excellent combat skills (Vulture has no combat training, though he handles himself remarkably well against opponents with superior skills.) and telepathic link to birds.
Falcon won't have an easy time of it. I think Vulture will catch him off guard at first, but if Falcon can weather the first crucial minutes of the battle (perhaps with Redwing running a little interference), I think he'll pull out the victory with a narrow majority 6/10 times.
I should note that this is based solely on their standard load out. On occasion Vulture has used an expanded arsenal, and should he dip into those toys, the outcome of the match could easily swing in his favor.
EDIT: I found some info on flight speeds. Vulture's top speed is around 95 miles per hour, while Falcon can reach speeds up to 250.
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