I would give Connor the victory in the majority of encounters. The battle taking place in a forest, I think, should give Connor a significant advantage. While I am not entirely up to date on Arrow, so I do not know the full extent of Arrow's equipment, but it would seem to me that in addition to the environment, Connor would have the advantage with more versatile equipment; he commonly carries a bow, a flintlock pistol, hidden blades, tomahawk, sword/club, and numerous utility equipment such as mines, smoke bombs, poison darts and rope darts.
That is my assessment. If someone knows more about Arrow's equipment, I would like to hear what he carries.