Sidious himself says to Yoda that Anakin is more powerful.
Sidious: "You will not stop me. Darth Vader will become more powerful than either of us."
Palpatine said that Anakin would supersede himself and Yoda at some time in the future; this was a statement of potential power, not achieved power.
Also, Mace Windu defeated Palpatine in their lightsaber duel. Regardless of what Sidious' fans would like to believe there's nothing anywhere that shows he lost on purpose.
According to George Lucas and starwars.com, Mace winning non-circumstantially is not so clear-cut. Three different pages on starwars.com state that Mace's victory over Sidious is open to viewer interpretation.
10 Best Fights
The ending continues to be debated; Windu seemingly has Sidious beaten, unarmed and cowering. But was this all planned to get Anakin to come to his defense?
Mace Windu Databank
Mace seemed to defeat Sidious and raised his lightsaber to strike down the Sith Lord, but a desperate Anakin ignited his own weapon and severed Mace’s forearm.
Mace Windu Biography Gallery, Image 31 of 32
Mace prevailed and appeared to defeat Sidious.
Lucas also has refused to comment on whether or not Palpatine intended to lose in a Homing Beacon article.
Homing Beacon #139 Archive
It's one of the fieriest debates of online fan forums: when Palpatine was cornered in his office's giant window-frame, was he really overpowered by Mace? Or was he faking to lure Anakin? Could Mace really have gotten the upper hand on the Sith Lord?
George Lucas is the ultimate keeper of the true answer, and he's not telling... yet, anyway. If you had asked me in the Summer of '03, when the sequence was first shot, I would have had a solid answer. But, if you asked me in the Fall of '04, when the sequence was re-shot, well... for those who want to debate, it's best to know more of the story of how this scene came to be.
So... with this revised duel, if Sidious threw the fight, it places an awful lot of faith on Anakin's timing ...and he suffered a kicked-in face to boot. For what it's worth to those arguing, I doubt there's anyone who thinks Palpatine's serious when he claims he's too weak. That's obviously a lie. But was the fall into the corner that preceded his pleas for help a lie as well?
The fight is open for debate. There are no definitive facts one way or another. If your opinion is that Mace legitimately outmatched Palpatine in the duel, fair enough; I honestly take no issue with that interpretation. But what I do take issue with is when people act like the debate is settled. There are no absolute facts on this in either case; there are hints from various sources that Mace straight-up outfought him and hints from various sources that Palpatine held back to garner Anakin's sympathy. As it stands, the scene is subject to viewer discretion. The filmmakers and SW's official website has left this a matter of opinion; we should do the same.
Also, Windu deflected his force lightning back on his face. Anakin saw that happen so he obviously already has a counter for the only move Sidious could use against him.
Whether or not you believe Sidious refrained from killing Mace in the duel and allowed him to win, Palpatine holding back during the Lightning exchange once Anakin entered the room is not open to interpretation. Several sources have outright stated that he held back. In fact, the RotS novelization says clearly that Palpatine was overpowering Mace via Lightning before he stopped producing the bolts. One way or another, even if you think Mace can defeat him blade to blade, the fact is that Palpatine can defeat Mace, armed or not, with Lightning.
Lightning blasted the clouds above, and lightning blasted from Palpatine's hands, and Mace didn't have time to comprehend what Palpatine was talking about; he had time only to slip back into Vaapad and angle his blade to catch the forking arcs of pure, dazzling hatred that clawed toward him. Because Vaapad is more than a fighting style. It is a state of mind: a channel for darkness. Power passed into him and out again without touching him. And the circuit completed itself: the lightning reflected back to its source.
Palpatine still made no move to defend himself from Skywalker; instead he ramped up the lightning bursting from his hands, bending the fountain of Mace's blade back toward the Korun Master's face.
"You're the chosen one, Anakin," Mace said, his voice going thin with strain. This was beyond Vaapad; he had no strength left to fight against his own blade.
Mace's blade bent so close to his face that he was choking on ozone. "Anakin, he's too strong for me—"
--Taken from Revenge of the Sith
However, all of this is one long red herring. The skills Mace possesses are not translatable to Anakin. Who would win in a fight between Mace and Anakin is itself arguable, but we know for certain based on Attack of the Clones featurettes that Mace was the second most capable swordsman in the Order by the time of AotC, beneath only Yoda. Anakin may or may not have surpassed him as of RotS. As a result, Mace winning is by itself ambiguous, and Anakin being superior to Mace is also ambiguous.
To the fight itself, Anakin may win if the will of the Force bears any relevance here (and depending on whether or not you call the will of the Force PIS), but otherwise, in a straight fight, Palpatine wins.
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